polymarket$79.6M
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
尾部·低成本对冲93%
结果概率仅 7.5%，单价低；作为尾部风险的对冲仓位成本小，但期望值需自行判断。
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting wi
YES 隐含概率1.4%
成交量$46.2M
流动性$526K
距结算51 天
尾部·低成本对冲可信度 99%
结果概率仅 1.4%，单价低；作为尾部风险的对冲仓位成本小，但期望值需自行判断。
相关盘口
polymarket$34.9M
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
分歧区·值得跟踪74%
隐含概率 23.7% 处于分歧区间，流动性 $364K；距结算 0 天，是模型与市场分歧最容易出现的位置。
polymarket$29.7M
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
尾部·低成本对冲97%
结果概率仅 2.5%，单价低；作为尾部风险的对冲仓位成本小，但期望值需自行判断。