polymarket$46.2M
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
尾部·低成本对冲99%
结果概率仅 1.4%，单价低；作为尾部风险的对冲仓位成本小，但期望值需自行判断。
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
YES 隐含概率7.5%
成交量$79.6M
流动性$460K
距结算51 天
尾部·低成本对冲可信度 93%
结果概率仅 7.5%，单价低；作为尾部风险的对冲仓位成本小，但期望值需自行判断。
相关盘口
polymarket$34.9M
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
分歧区·值得跟踪74%
隐含概率 23.7% 处于分歧区间，流动性 $364K；距结算 0 天，是模型与市场分歧最容易出现的位置。
polymarket$29.7M
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
尾部·低成本对冲97%
结果概率仅 2.5%，单价低；作为尾部风险的对冲仓位成本小，但期望值需自行判断。