polymarket$79.6M
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
尾部·低成本对冲93%
结果概率仅 7.5%，单价低；作为尾部风险的对冲仓位成本小，但期望值需自行判断。
Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an energy ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An energy ceasefire refers to a mutually agreed arrangement under which both Russia and Ukraine commit to suspend strikes on at least one specific, defined category of the other country's energy infrastructure (e.g. oil refineries, gas processing plants, power plants, electricity transmission and distribution facilities, oil and gas pipelines, fuel storage facilities, or oil and g
YES 隐含概率14.5%
成交量$42K
流动性$58K
距结算19 天
长尾·流动性不足可信度 19%
流动性 $58K，报价容易被单笔交易推动，参考价值有限。
相关盘口
polymarket$46.2M
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
尾部·低成本对冲99%
结果概率仅 1.4%，单价低；作为尾部风险的对冲仓位成本小，但期望值需自行判断。
polymarket$34.9M
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
分歧区·值得跟踪73%
隐含概率 23.3% 处于分歧区间，流动性 $359K；距结算 0 天，是模型与市场分歧最容易出现的位置。