Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
结果概率仅 7.5%,单价低;作为尾部风险的对冲仓位成本小,但期望值需自行判断。
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been pub
结果概率仅 8.5%,单价低;作为尾部风险的对冲仓位成本小,但期望值需自行判断。
结果概率仅 7.5%,单价低;作为尾部风险的对冲仓位成本小,但期望值需自行判断。
结果概率仅 1.4%,单价低;作为尾部风险的对冲仓位成本小,但期望值需自行判断。
隐含概率 23.7% 处于分歧区间,流动性 $364K;距结算 0 天,是模型与市场分歧最容易出现的位置。