polymarket$79.6M
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
尾部·低成本对冲93%
结果概率仅 7.5%，单价低；作为尾部风险的对冲仓位成本小，但期望值需自行判断。
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other topics. This market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran has been mutually signed or adopted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the
YES 隐含概率12.5%
成交量$4.4M
流动性$147K
距结算51 天
分歧区·值得跟踪可信度 63%
隐含概率 12.5% 处于分歧区间，流动性 $147K；距结算 51 天，是模型与市场分歧最容易出现的位置。
相关盘口
polymarket$46.2M
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
尾部·低成本对冲99%
结果概率仅 1.4%，单价低；作为尾部风险的对冲仓位成本小，但期望值需自行判断。
polymarket$34.9M
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
分歧区·值得跟踪74%
隐含概率 23.7% 处于分歧区间，流动性 $364K；距结算 0 天，是模型与市场分歧最容易出现的位置。