polymarket$79.6M
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
尾部·低成本对冲93%
结果概率仅 7.5%，单价低；作为尾部风险的对冲仓位成本小，但期望值需自行判断。
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by December 31?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran is completed, where the first day of that period is between market creation and the specified date (Iran Standard Time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (Iran Standard Time) after the most recent qualifying military action. Military actions occurring before market creation are not qualifying military actions. Where no qualifying military action has occurred after market c
YES 隐含概率81.5%
成交量$97K
流动性$144K
距结算50 天
长尾·流动性不足可信度 28%
流动性 $144K，报价容易被单笔交易推动，参考价值有限。
相关盘口
polymarket$46.2M
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
尾部·低成本对冲99%
结果概率仅 1.4%，单价低；作为尾部风险的对冲仓位成本小，但期望值需自行判断。
polymarket$34.9M
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
分歧区·值得跟踪74%
隐含概率 23.7% 处于分歧区间，流动性 $364K；距结算 0 天，是模型与市场分歧最容易出现的位置。