polymarket$79.6M
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
尾部·低成本对冲93%
结果概率仅 7.5%，单价低；作为尾部风险的对冲仓位成本小，但期望值需自行判断。
Will Iran target Oman by November 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Oman through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time (GST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Oman. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a
YES 隐含概率75.0%
成交量$69K
流动性$10K
距结算20 天
长尾·流动性不足可信度 9%
流动性 $10K，报价容易被单笔交易推动，参考价值有限。
相关盘口
polymarket$46.2M
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
尾部·低成本对冲99%
结果概率仅 1.4%，单价低；作为尾部风险的对冲仓位成本小，但期望值需自行判断。
polymarket$34.9M
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
分歧区·值得跟踪74%
隐含概率 23.7% 处于分歧区间，流动性 $364K；距结算 0 天，是模型与市场分歧最容易出现的位置。